Topic: 6 months to wait

I've just finished a new spreadsheet that plays out the NRL - Aussie Rugby League season thousands of times, allowing me to get a pretty good idea of the true odds of certain eventualities happening.

I have to wait six months but something I reckon should yield 2% returns 33%, you just have to wait 6 months to collect, and it's just with one firm Bet Victor. They've genuinely fucked up on this, might projections might be out a shade but theres are out a mile.

Any bets I plan to place with Betvictor this coming week I'll double up with the 33% yield bet above.

Laying your money down for six months isn't everyone's cup of tea so I'll not go into detail but if anyone's interested let me know by PM or on here.

Edited to add
On my figures the bet will cop 99% of the time, the yield should be 1% not 2%.

Last edited by Foxy Dread (Mon 17 Mar 2014 7:33 pm)

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Re: 6 months to wait

It's bad enough that, as my one remaining treat to myself, I can watch every NRL game of every round on Premier. If I had a financial interest as well.....

She’s the main man in the office in the city and she treats me like I’m just another lackey, but I can put a tennis racket up against my face and pretend that I am Kendo Nagasaki...

Re: 6 months to wait

Although I am intrigued.....

Been some fantastic games already.

She’s the main man in the office in the city and she treats me like I’m just another lackey, but I can put a tennis racket up against my face and pretend that I am Kendo Nagasaki...

Re: 6 months to wait

I'm genuinely interested.

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Re: 6 months to wait

I wish I knew what the fuck any of you were talking about.

Only those who dream will someday see their dreams converted to reality

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Re: 6 months to wait

I'd invest, seriously.

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Re: 6 months to wait

I'm interested, I have no money

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Re: 6 months to wait

I'm going to run some checks on this, I'll report back tomorrow.

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Re: 6 months to wait

Do you take Waterstones' vouchers?

Call me up in dreamland. Radio to me man.

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Re: 6 months to wait

Do they still have Luncheon Vouchers?

She’s the main man in the office in the city and she treats me like I’m just another lackey, but I can put a tennis racket up against my face and pretend that I am Kendo Nagasaki...

Re: 6 months to wait

Mugs, 4000 + points up and you're plumping for a pittance. ;-) Never mind me and Albert [and I'd rather never mind it, both too old] this is bet wars. Right Foxy, I'll ignore all previous results, between now and September 17th, £1 a point, let's see who wins.

He spent all night staring down at the lights of LS. Wondering if he could ever go home.

Re: 6 months to wait

Travis Bickle wrote:

Do they still have Luncheon Vouchers?

Yes, we get them at work.

Call me up in dreamland. Radio to me man.

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Re: 6 months to wait

Mol wrote:

Mugs, 4000 + points up and you're plumping for a pittance. ;-) Never mind me and Albert [and I'd rather never mind it, both too old] this is bet wars. Right Foxy, I'll ignore all previous results, between now and September 17th, £1 a point, let's see who wins.

You win.

Different styles of betting. If i can make 10% i'm happy, it means higher stakes and larger turnover are necessary, but fewer losing runs.

Last edited by Foxy Dread (Tue 18 Mar 2014 12:41 pm)

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Re: 6 months to wait

Anyone wanna buy a ticket for the lincoln, I'll take 50p in the pound?

"In the end, society is defined not only by what we create, but also by what we refuse to destroy."

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Re: 6 months to wait

Not pressed on with this, as I say was only going to double it up with any bets i placed with Bet Victor, that way i can get higher stakes on and possibly avoid getting banned as winning bets wouldn't be paid out until September.

Anyway the bet would have been

Manly Sea Eagles to finish in the top 8 of the NRL at 1.33
or
Melbourne Storm to finish in the top 8 of the NRL at 1.33

I was leaning more towards the Manly option.

I say the bet would have been, it still might be if i'm betting with Betvictor and their odds are still live.

Last edited by Foxy Dread (Fri 21 Mar 2014 11:19 am)

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Re: 6 months to wait

Since the abov Manly have won both games, including a win vs the reigning champions this weekend.

I'll check the odds on Monday but they won't be worth taking now.

Last edited by Foxy Dread (Sun 30 Mar 2014 11:11 am)

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Re: 6 months to wait

Update.

My preferred option Manly, top the league and the bookies are refusing to take bets on them finishing in the top 8 it's considered a certainty.

Melbourne Storm have had a shit season by their high standards but are now showing some form and are currently 1.22 to finish in the Top 8

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Re: 6 months to wait

A current cock up by Paddy Powers is the  price of 1/2 aka 1.5 on Saracens to finish top London club in this year's Aviva Premiership, again I make it about a 1.02 chance or 1/50.

All sorts of terrible things would have to happen for Saracens to fail.

I've doubled it in a couple of bets but they won't let me have anymore. I've just checked and it's now 4/9 or 1.44. That is still worth taking for anyone happy to lay some money down until next May.

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Re: 6 months to wait

The final NRL games are taking place this weekend. Manly sealed their place in the top 8 weeks ago. Melbourne only made absolutely certain with ten minutes to go of their final game, although they were always favourites to do so.

Last edited by Foxy Dread (Fri 05 Sep 2014 6:19 pm)

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