Topic: Should we stay or should we go?

I am at a loss really - I have read around this issue and clearly understand I need to read further. 

However - would anyone care to offer up an opinion to convince me of either scenario.

Are we better off in or out of the EU?

Thankyouplease.

Aim Low and miss...

Re: Should we stay or should we go?

It'll cost a fortune to leave, money the country apparently doesn't have, although it can find plenty to bomb fuckers with. And take years to decouple everything. That's apart from the economic benefit of staying in. Unless the UK becomes more of a tax haven than it already is (when I say UK I mean London in this case, which will inevitably be at the expense of the rest of the UK), financial business will relocate to europe where they don't have to piss about with new restrictions that will inevitably be put in place by both sides after decoupling (Its bad enough the UK still clings on to Sterling). Then there's the risk of tariffs on uk services and exports.  Norway are successful outside because they have loads of oil and fish. When their oil starts to run out they'll want to join. The UK don't have anything that europe can't get from within europe (and cheaper) - its only the EU that supports the UK trade with the rest of europe.

If you leave, you're fucked. Even more fucked than you are now.

Only those who dream will someday see their dreams converted to reality

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Harold Wilson once explored whether we could become the 51st American state. Imagine that.

Site stalwart.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

From the outside looking it, it's not much of a stretch to imagine that.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

DJPeckingham - can I ask why it would cost money?  Do you mean overall, with trade restrictions, loss of trade and the like?

Are you Europe based???

Aim Low and miss...

Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Djpekingman wrote:

It'll cost a fortune to leave, money the country apparently doesn't have, although it can find plenty to bomb fuckers with. And take years to decouple everything. That's apart from the economic benefit of staying in. Unless the UK becomes more of a tax haven than it already is (when I say UK I mean London in this case, which will inevitably be at the expense of the rest of the UK), financial business will relocate to europe where they don't have to piss about with new restrictions that will inevitably be put in place by both sides after decoupling (Its bad enough the UK still clings on to Sterling). Then there's the risk of tariffs on uk services and exports.  Norway are successful outside because they have loads of oil and fish. When their oil starts to run out they'll want to join. The UK don't have anything that europe can't get from within europe (and cheaper) - its only the EU that supports the UK trade with the rest of europe.

If you leave, you're fucked. Even more fucked than you are now.

That will never happen, as long as we have a fair legal system and have fair minded people in this country and a reasonably stable currency*. This is the main reason that London attracts capital. Banking, finance, trading are all by-products of that safe secure feeling foreign people get by parking their money in England.

A friend of mine (in banking) said the reason was because we are good at banking. Bellend! The last 9 years have taught that we are not that great.

*This is important

Last edited by Mitaman (Fri 05 Feb 2016 3:23 am)

'a face like a binmans glove... like a Sea Bream's anus...like a dill pickle in a cobblers handbag'

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Stay in but adopt the French approach - comply with the bits we like and conveniently forget/disregard the bits we're not so keen on.

The insurgency began.................and you missed it.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

danpiesley wrote:

DJPeckingham - can I ask why it would cost money?  Do you mean overall, with trade restrictions, loss of trade and the like?

Are you Europe based???

Settlements over agreements already made, pensions rules for expats, rewriting laws and rules, payoffs for folk who are currently part of the european machine - there are now so many government institutions that are part of europe to break them up and reorganise governmental institutions will cost a bomb (lawyers, politicians, civil servants).

On top of that there's the trade issue. Then there's the currency devaluation that will inevitably happen. Sterling is tiny compared to the euro and dollar. While historically it has been (relatively) stable, going forwards I can't see it having the backing that would give financial institutions the comfort they currently have (which is why I say they'll move, and probably take a lot of their people).

I am based in europe, yes. Theoretically I should have a vote, but in practice I can't see it happening, as will be the case for thousands of expats who still have UK citizenship but are resident abroad.

Only those who dream will someday see their dreams converted to reality

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

This

You are what you repeatedly do. Excellence is not an event - it is a habit.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Djpekingman wrote:
danpiesley wrote:

DJPeckingham - can I ask why it would cost money?  Do you mean overall, with trade restrictions, loss of trade and the like?

Are you Europe based???

Settlements over agreements already made, pensions rules for expats, rewriting laws and rules, payoffs for folk who are currently part of the european machine - there are now so many government institutions that are part of europe to break them up and reorganise governmental institutions will cost a bomb (lawyers, politicians, civil servants).

On top of that there's the trade issue. Then there's the currency devaluation that will inevitably happen. Sterling is tiny compared to the euro and dollar. While historically it has been (relatively) stable, going forwards I can't see it having the backing that would give financial institutions the comfort they currently have (which is why I say they'll move, and probably take a lot of their people).

I am based in europe, yes. Theoretically I should have a vote, but in practice I can't see it happening, as will be the case for thousands of expats who still have UK citizenship but are resident abroad.

Whats new? It always has been. Personally, I see GBP strengething as UK business will shake off very expensive and unnecessary (in the main) EU legislation. I don't buy the weakening argument at all. If GBP does weaken, then there are some positives in that, particularly in a climate of low commodity pricing,

'a face like a binmans glove... like a Sea Bream's anus...like a dill pickle in a cobblers handbag'

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

GBP will be a small currency trying to compete with two very large ones on its own whereas previously it was competing against many other small ones. Remove the EU backing and it will be massively vulnerable to Soros type speculation. I don't see how a weak pound would help - commodities would become very expensive, raw materials more so, not that there is much manufacturing anyway which is something else which will fall like a stone due the massive skills shortage. They won't be able to import skills like they do now under the EU - the whole concept of leaving is to 'send them all back and stop them coming in'. EU legislation is there for a reason. Dropping it on grounds of cost leaves so many avenues of vulnerability, from individual's rights to food standards.

Only those who dream will someday see their dreams converted to reality

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

See my biggest issue with this is that it appears to be primarily supposition and opinion.

I have been reading further and my opinion now is that if we came out Cameron would have a fucking field day as will be accountable to no one.  The EU makes him accountable;e to someone and I for one don't fancy decades of Tory rule stripping human rights, workers rights and feathering nests.

For that reason I am in.

DJ  - thanks for your reply - I appreciate it.

Aim Low and miss...

Re: Should we stay or should we go?

HSBC bribed to stay in London. 700 million a year cut in profits levy and reversal of burden of guilt on bankers. Makes you want to puke.

Only those who dream will someday see their dreams converted to reality

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Some fella (Sir Something) on R4 this morning saying that the BofE isn't being rigorous enough or going far enough in ensuring banks have enough collateral to up (or start) their borrowing.  I'm sure he mentioned some new fancy insurance product but it begs the question, backed by who?  AIG like the subprime shit was?  After watching and now reading The Big Short I wonder if this is just another was of providing product to the bond market.

I may be way off and influenced by the book but there did seem to be echoes of it.

I'd offer you a beer, but I've only got six cans.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

So.  Vote in and side with Dave vote out and your mates with Bozza and Gove!

Fucks sake.

Aim Low and miss...

Re: Should we stay or should we go?

I think we have to accept we are no longer a world power
The days of the British empire are long gone.
We are a relatively well off medium sized country that still thinks it's a super power.
In order to have influence we need power and the only way to do that is to stay in and accept we will have to gang up with the Germans in order to be heard in the world.
Oh and staying in should hopefully take the edge of anything those bastard Tories are up to.

ambition beyond ability

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Dominic Grieve MP spoke a lot of sense this morning. A bit of fact in the midst of Gove's scaremongering.

On one view the 'Brexit' lot haven't assembled the most impressive bunch to speak for them. But when you consider their core audience they're perfect....

She’s the main man in the office in the city and she treats me like I’m just another lackey, but I can put a tennis racket up against my face and pretend that I am Kendo Nagasaki...

Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Chris Grayling FFS

ambition beyond ability

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

We're still recovering from his time as Lord Chancellor. Without question the worst in history. A view shared by every lawyer I've met, a large number of whom are dyed in the wool Tory boys. Holds the record for the number of times as a minister he was found to have acted unlawfully. Didn't come as a surprise as he had no appreciation or understanding of the rule of law. A full weight if ever there was one.

She’s the main man in the office in the city and she treats me like I’m just another lackey, but I can put a tennis racket up against my face and pretend that I am Kendo Nagasaki...

Re: Should we stay or should we go?

And what about the homophobic b&b issue

ambition beyond ability

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

wogga wrote:

And what about the homophobic b&b issue

What about it?

I'd offer you a beer, but I've only got six cans.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

I'm very much a whatever rocks your boat type
So as long as it doesn't cause harm and is legal its up to you wot you get up to in your b&b of choice
Mr Grayling's view differs somewhat

ambition beyond ability

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

The Brexit/ Bremain issue is absolutely huge, but lacking in clear concise detail on both sides that nobody, including me, can make a thoughtful decision on the issue. Somebody blogged this info in the Guardian today, can't vouch for its accuracy of course.

In an effort to inform the ‘undecided’ I will update this as the referendum approaches and regularly post this on EU related articles.
I would like the UK to leave the EU, so the facts I have included mainly debunk myths and scaremongering, but if people wish to provide information to the contrary, I will include it.
I have only included facts or material from sources trusted by both Remain and Leave camps.

WHAT DO OTHER EU CITIZENS THINK OF THE EU?

Source: European Commission Bi-Annual Survey
Five countries have more pessimists than optimists regarding the EU project
Greece - 63%
Cyprus – 58%
Austria – 56%
France – 52%
Czech Republic – 51%
Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia Slovenia and the United Kingdom are all between 45 and 50%
All member nations have at least 20% citizens pessimistic about the EU project

53% of Dutch people want a referendum
44% of Dutch people would vote Remain, 44% would vote Leave

55% of EU citizens do not trust the EU
61% of EU citizens believe their voice does not count in the EU


NORWAY / SWITZERLAND EXAMPLE DEBUNKED

Source: EFTA Secretariat Report
Between 2000 and 2013, Norway and Iceland adopted just 9% of EU legal instruments

Professor Herman Matthijs of the Free University of Brussels, like-with-like annual per capita contribution comparator:
Iceland - €50
Switzerland - €68
Norway - €107
UK - €229

Most recent surveys opposing full EU membership:
Iceland – 60%
Norway – 79%
Switzerland – 82%

Switzerland exports five times more per capita to the EU than the UK does

MEMBERSHIP COSTS

UK Contribution: £17.8 billion
After Rebate: £12.9 billion (£35 million per day)

The majority of the rebate comes in the form of CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) which mainly goes to global supermarkets, farmers and land owners.
Nearly £2 billion goes to private organisations – I do not know who they are.

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite (former EU budget commissioner) quote: The Common Agricultural Policy forces consumers to pay, “two or three times more for food than we would pay without the policy”.

Additional Costs - Department for Work and Pensions statistics 2013:
EU Migrant Housing Benefit = £465 million
EU Migrant Jobseeker’s Allowance = £216 million
EU Migrant Disability Allowance= £205 million
This £886 million figure does not include the benefits (such as child benefit going to foreign based children) that relate to the Prime Minister’s “Full Access” claim
The actual cost welfare to the exchequer of EU migrants is between £1 billion and £2 billion


SOVEREIGNTY

Influence: The ability of a country to work with others to move world policy.
Power: The ability to exert authority over other nations.
Sovereignty: The ability for a country to make all its own decisions, limited only by international law and by its own relative power in the world.

Source: EU website Research Resources
1. 13% of our statute laws are EU directives that must be turned into UK law by parliament.
2. 52,000 directives and regulations were made between 2000 and 2013. The directives become UK law the moment they are made by the EU. This is where the ambiguity lies in the area between Nick Clegg (8%) and Nigel Farage (75%) of UK laws made by the EU.
3. The discrepancy is that they do not need to be voted through by parliament. They tend to be the ones that relate to cucumbers and toasters, but also things with big impacts like the regulations on vehicles.
4. UK MEPs have 9% of the total vote on all these laws, regulations and directives.
5. The UK government has 13% of the Council of Ministers vote.
6. The UK has opposed 59 EU Directives since 1996, and has been outvoted every time.
7. An estimated 70% of decisions made in the EU Council of Ministers are already implemented before they reach the voting stage.

As a sovereignty issue, banking and City financial institutions have been affected by the following EU legislative measures:
1. The Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive
2. Short-selling ban
3. Bonus cap
4. Financial Transactions Tax
This is a speculative conclusion, but it has been said that this was a concerted effort to reduce the dominance of London in the financial markets. It may not be popular with all the British public, but it is a fact that free of the EU, an adjustment to any or all of these measures would increase tax for the exchequer, aid international competitiveness, and generally ensure the UK remained the centre of worldwide financial services.


IMMIGRATION

Source: Jonathan Portes (Principal Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research)
1. 2010 to 2015 – Over 2 million EU citizens registered for UK national insurance numbers
2. 2010 to 2015 – Official migration figures of just over 1 million

'a face like a binmans glove... like a Sea Bream's anus...like a dill pickle in a cobblers handbag'

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Oh and if they are going to leave, GBP collapsing further than it already has done this year is counterbalanced by very cheap commodity prices and raw materials. i.e. If we are ever going to leave, you would be hard-pressed to pick a better time to do from that perspective.

The trade tarriff issue that Cameron is banging on about (assisted by Mandelson this week) taking 10 years is nonsense. The EU sells loads more shit to us than the other way round, they will find a way very very quickly to make new agreements.

Other than that I have no fecking idea about it.

I get the strong impression that Brussels and the IMF are shitting it, another nail in the EU coffin. The UK could WELL be the pin that pops that balloon, that is what they are all really worried about.

Last edited by Mitaman (Tue 01 Mar 2016 7:26 am)

'a face like a binmans glove... like a Sea Bream's anus...like a dill pickle in a cobblers handbag'

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

If I was in the UK now i'd vote to leave, but in the same way plenty of Leeds fans wanted Cellino to take over at Leeds, a sort of fuck it lets see what happens.

Additionally if Cameron and Osbourne are saying stay, isn't that enough reason to vote no.

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