Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Mitaman wrote:

Oh and if they are going to leave, GBP collapsing further than it already has done this year is counterbalanced by very cheap commodity prices and raw materials. i.e. If we are ever going to leave, you would be hard-pressed to pick a better time to do from that perspective.

The trade tarriff issue that Cameron is banging on about (assisted by Mandelson this week) taking 10 years is nonsense. The EU sells loads more shit to us than the other way round, they will find a way very very quickly to make new agreements.

Other than that I have no fecking idea about it.

I get the strong impression that Brussels and the IMF are shitting it, another nail in the EU coffin. The UK could WELL be the pin that pops that balloon, that is what they are all really worried about.

Where the hell do you get cheap commodity prices and raw materials? Exactly how many raw materials does the UK produce? Everything it uses in what's left of its manufacturing is imported. That means with a weak pound you pay more for them. And food. And that compounds inflation. Which means higher wages. Which means higher prices at the factory gate. Come on get real.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Not sure how accurate the figures are but I do know the person behind it has an agenda - not too difficult to see

My point of view is that it's the EU that's broken and everyone should be looking at how to fix it first rather than simply pulling out and running.  I do believe the EU is the right place to and the right thing to have provided it's a mutually beneficial thing for everyone within it. 

Unfortunately it's a behemoth that no one seems able to shape into something that works for the greater Europe - it's too PC in some ways,  the have-nots taking preference to the haves with bountiful parasites dressed up as MEPs seeking their own piece of the pie

I favour a bit of brinkmanship - "change or we're fucking off" type thing.  I really don't believe we'd be worse off outside it but I do believe we could be much better off within an effective EU

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

I'm veering towards exit.  I don't believe that Labour's (real Labour) natural position is to be "European" or "Internationalist" as they like to say.  I think we could probably do with a bit more control over a few things.   I tend to think that we are subsidising the development of a federation and too many of the composite parts are on their arse. 

Would there be immediate trade sanctions against us?  I suspect no.  The worst bit will be the complicated extrication process.  Will it happen though?  I doubt it. 

What dismays me more than anything is that there is no clear benefit and no clear disadvantage other than conjecture and opinion.  I suspect many of the "head of business2 who sign letters in support of membership are doing solely because of a slight difference in a number on a balance sheet.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

RHS speaks most sense here. Pulling out will fuck the UK up for long time if not for good. Its ok believing the hysteric Trumpisms of the brexit crowd, but please look at the facts and the agendas behind the brexits. Farage? Gove? And our very own Trump, Boris (the similarities are uncanny - perchance they are related?).

Think back to how the brexit hysteria has arisen - a series of Daily Mail headlines screaming blue murder about immigration, ridiculous hysterical headlines about european laws, loss of sovereignty etc and some misguided and misinformed bollocks that Britain is still great. And now they're accusing the business community and pro europeans of scaremongering. Hypocracy at best.

Think about your holidays, your medical care there when you have a heart attack over the prices, your potential retirement or investments in europe, your booze cruises to calais. Everything will be more difficult, complicated and expensive. Be careful what you wish for.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

You're just shitting yourself you'll have to come back to Blightly if we leave DJP

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

CBIT wrote:

You're just shitting yourself you'll have to come back to Blightly if we leave DJP

Not me. Only thing I don't have is a spanish passport and I might do that. Failing that I'll move to St Vincent or somewhere nice.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

It kinda sticks in the craw that vast amounts of EU money is spent on infrastructure projects in less developed neighbours for them to fuck us over with giant tax breaks designed to attract huge employers to their country.   

Also whilst a British Chippy can never afford to work in Poland and send money home then it's not a fair system and on top of that he has to reduce what he charges to compete with the Polish fella that is now living round the corner. 

If the counter argument is that there is sufficient evidence to say that exiting will put u on a road to that Chippy will starve to death with the rest of us outside the EU then I'm happy to hear the evidence and be convinced.

I'd offer you a beer, but I've only got six cans.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

The UK has had their fair share of money for infrastructure projects - look at the roads and bridges in the north of scotland and in NI - all EU money - they even used to have signs up to say so. Regenerations in smogland and merseyside and other disadvantaged areas. To say its been a one way thing is ridiculous in the extreme. Spain's infrastructure largely rebuilt by EU money. Now they are a net contributor and the money goes to poorer nations to help improve their lot.

Chippy charges are just free market. What the tories and business want. Over time it'll balance its self out as living standards in Poland improve and cosets increase.  Think about auf wiedersein pet - british chippys working in germany and sending money home - what goes around comes around.

And this is the crux of the matter - while the UK think they are getting something for nothing they're happy. When it starts balancing itself out is when the tabloid hysteria kicks in.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Djpekingman wrote:

The UK has had their fair share of money for infrastructure projects - look at the roads and bridges in the north of scotland and in NI - all EU money - they even used to have signs up to say so. Regenerations in smogland and merseyside and other disadvantaged areas. To say its been a one way thing is ridiculous in the extreme. Spain's infrastructure largely rebuilt by EU money. Now they are a net contributor and the money goes to poorer nations to help improve their lot.

Chippy charges are just free market. What the tories and business want. Over time it'll balance its self out as living standards in Poland improve and cosets increase.  Think about auf wiedersein pet - british chippys working in germany and sending money home - what goes around comes around.

And this is the crux of the matter - while the UK think they are getting something for nothing they're happy. When it starts balancing itself out is when the tabloid hysteria kicks in.

Good points well made.  Although I'm not attempting to be ridiculous, I just don't know about it.  I always thought that our road fun licence paid for out roads and as there are fucking millions of cars on the road and it cost a load don't we have a fair pot to use anyway?

I'd offer you a beer, but I've only got six cans.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Reggie Perrin wrote:
Djpekingman wrote:

The UK has had their fair share of money for infrastructure projects - look at the roads and bridges in the north of scotland and in NI - all EU money - they even used to have signs up to say so. Regenerations in smogland and merseyside and other disadvantaged areas. To say its been a one way thing is ridiculous in the extreme. Spain's infrastructure largely rebuilt by EU money. Now they are a net contributor and the money goes to poorer nations to help improve their lot.

Chippy charges are just free market. What the tories and business want. Over time it'll balance its self out as living standards in Poland improve and cosets increase.  Think about auf wiedersein pet - british chippys working in germany and sending money home - what goes around comes around.

And this is the crux of the matter - while the UK think they are getting something for nothing they're happy. When it starts balancing itself out is when the tabloid hysteria kicks in.

Good points well made.  Although I'm not attempting to be ridiculous, I just don't know about it.  I always thought that our road fun licence paid for out roads and as there are fucking millions of cars on the road and it cost a load don't we have a fair pot to use anyway?

Road fund licence has always gone into the treasury's general pot, along with fines, VAT, Fuel Tax etc, which is then redistributed according to how they think fit. Some of it filters back to road maintenance via local council subsidies, but by the time everyone has had their cut and funded their pet projects and overpaid private contractor crony mates of highways agency officials there's fuck all left which is why there are so many holes in the roads. Osborne has actually promised by the end of the decade all Car Tx monies will be ploughed back into road maintenance and building. It remains to be seen how much there is of that given that are so many exemptions these days.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Djpekingman wrote:

The UK has had their fair share of money for infrastructure projects - look at the roads and bridges in the north of scotland and in NI - all EU money - they even used to have signs up to say so. Regenerations in smogland and merseyside and other disadvantaged areas. To say its been a one way thing is ridiculous in the extreme. Spain's infrastructure largely rebuilt by EU money. Now they are a net contributor and the money goes to poorer nations to help improve their lot.

Chippy charges are just free market. What the tories and business want. Over time it'll balance its self out as living standards in Poland improve and cosets increase.  Think about auf wiedersein pet - british chippys working in germany and sending money home - what goes around comes around.

And this is the crux of the matter - while the UK think they are getting something for nothing they're happy. When it starts balancing itself out is when the tabloid hysteria kicks in.

While I was working over in Cork about 6 years ago the local Irish lads were pretty open about how things were (and this is them speaking not my interpretation) - "we (the Irish) got screwed over by you lot (the English) for a long time in the 60s/70s/80s when we really needed the cash and we had to come to England to work for peanuts cash-in-hand.  Now the Poles are here (in Ireland) we're fucking them over the same as you did to us"

Some of the Irish lads were very matter-of-fact about;  some were aware of the irony of it all and (almost) embarrassed

The Poles will be doing the same to the Turks / Romanians whatever in 10 years time

The newly middle class Chinese and Indians are doing it to the rural Chinese / Indians as we speak

You are what you repeatedly do. Excellence is not an event - it is a habit.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Fucked them over?  They run our construction industry.

I'd offer you a beer, but I've only got six cans.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Cash in hand?

Managerial endeavour = houses = money.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Reggie Perrin wrote:

Fucked them over?  They run our construction industry.

They do now perhaps

Speak to my father-in-law who came across to London from Kilkenny in the late fifties and what he found and how he was treated

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Ray Hankin's shorts wrote:
Reggie Perrin wrote:

Fucked them over?  They run our construction industry.

They do now perhaps

Speak to my father-in-law who came across to London from Kilkenny in the late fifties and what he found and how he was treated

No doubt but it doesnt look like anyone fucked anyone over.  Exploited sure but also handed over a big fuck off opportunity.

I'd offer you a beer, but I've only got six cans.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Reggie Perrin wrote:
Ray Hankin's shorts wrote:
Reggie Perrin wrote:

Fucked them over?  They run our construction industry.

They do now perhaps

Speak to my father-in-law who came across to London from Kilkenny in the late fifties and what he found and how he was treated

No doubt but it doesnt look like anyone fucked anyone over.  Exploited sure but also handed over a big fuck off opportunity.

Handed over?  On a silver spoon?  A couple of generations worked their nuts off for the privilege of seeing their offspring being treated with equality

I don't have a drip of Irish in me but i can see why some of them might be a tad bitter about it all

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Djpekingman wrote:
Mitaman wrote:

Oh and if they are going to leave, GBP collapsing further than it already has done this year is counterbalanced by very cheap commodity prices and raw materials. i.e. If we are ever going to leave, you would be hard-pressed to pick a better time to do from that perspective.

The trade tarriff issue that Cameron is banging on about (assisted by Mandelson this week) taking 10 years is nonsense. The EU sells loads more shit to us than the other way round, they will find a way very very quickly to make new agreements.

Other than that I have no fecking idea about it.

I get the strong impression that Brussels and the IMF are shitting it, another nail in the EU coffin. The UK could WELL be the pin that pops that balloon, that is what they are all really worried about.

Where the hell do you get cheap commodity prices and raw materials? Exactly how many raw materials does the UK produce? Everything it uses in what's left of its manufacturing is imported. That means with a weak pound you pay more for them. And food. And that compounds inflation. Which means higher wages. Which means higher prices at the factory gate. Come on get real.

I perhaps did not explain myself very well. UK does not produce, it imports. Manufacturing has benefited from this over the last 5 years as core prices have plumetted. Had commodity prices remained broadly the same as they were, UK manufacturing would now be getting mullered, as things stand, they should be able to cope with a falling Sterling (it will erode current margin, but not put them out of business). Take your pick of these price charts, this one is copper..

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=5y

Last edited by Mitaman (Wed 02 Mar 2016 4:18 am)

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Ray Hankin's shorts wrote:
Reggie Perrin wrote:
Ray Hankin's shorts wrote:

They do now perhaps

Speak to my father-in-law who came across to London from Kilkenny in the late fifties and what he found and how he was treated

No doubt but it doesnt look like anyone fucked anyone over.  Exploited sure but also handed over a big fuck off opportunity.

Handed over?  On a silver spoon?  A couple of generations worked their nuts off for the privilege of seeing their offspring being treated with equality

I don't have a drip of Irish in me but i can see why some of them might be a tad bitter about it all

I guess we are going to have to disagree because "treated with equality" is not the same as "running the industry".

Plus I think I should add that at no point did I say I had any preference for anyone else running the building trade.  Fair play to them.  Also we would have never had that Faulty Towers episode with O'Riley without it.

Last edited by Reggie Perrin (Wed 02 Mar 2016 9:02 am)

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Mitaman wrote:
Djpekingman wrote:
Mitaman wrote:

Oh and if they are going to leave, GBP collapsing further than it already has done this year is counterbalanced by very cheap commodity prices and raw materials. i.e. If we are ever going to leave, you would be hard-pressed to pick a better time to do from that perspective.

The trade tarriff issue that Cameron is banging on about (assisted by Mandelson this week) taking 10 years is nonsense. The EU sells loads more shit to us than the other way round, they will find a way very very quickly to make new agreements.

Other than that I have no fecking idea about it.

I get the strong impression that Brussels and the IMF are shitting it, another nail in the EU coffin. The UK could WELL be the pin that pops that balloon, that is what they are all really worried about.

Where the hell do you get cheap commodity prices and raw materials? Exactly how many raw materials does the UK produce? Everything it uses in what's left of its manufacturing is imported. That means with a weak pound you pay more for them. And food. And that compounds inflation. Which means higher wages. Which means higher prices at the factory gate. Come on get real.

I perhaps did not explain myself very well. UK does not produce, it imports. Manufacturing has benefited from this over the last 5 years as core prices have plumetted. Had commodity prices remained broadly the same as they were, UK manufacturing would now be getting mullered, as things stand, they should be able to cope with a falling Sterling (it will erode current margin, but not put them out of business). Take your pick of these price charts, this one is copper..

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=5y

The low price of commodities is only a temporary blip while the chinese economy picks up again. As soon as it does and they start buying up everything in world again, UK manufacturing will be stuffed with a £ that is going to be around 30% less than is was two weeks ago....

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Reggie Perrin wrote:
Ray Hankin's shorts wrote:
Reggie Perrin wrote:

No doubt but it doesnt look like anyone fucked anyone over.  Exploited sure but also handed over a big fuck off opportunity.

Handed over?  On a silver spoon?  A couple of generations worked their nuts off for the privilege of seeing their offspring being treated with equality

I don't have a drip of Irish in me but i can see why some of them might be a tad bitter about it all

I guess we are going to have to disagree because "treated with equality" is not the same as "running the industry".

Plus I think I should add that at no point did I say I had any preference for anyone else running the building trade.  Fair play to them.  Also we would have never had that Faulty Towers episode with O'Riley without it.

True.  What was i thinking big_smile

You are what you repeatedly do. Excellence is not an event - it is a habit.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Ray Hankin's shorts wrote:
Reggie Perrin wrote:
Ray Hankin's shorts wrote:

Handed over?  On a silver spoon?  A couple of generations worked their nuts off for the privilege of seeing their offspring being treated with equality

I don't have a drip of Irish in me but i can see why some of them might be a tad bitter about it all

I guess we are going to have to disagree because "treated with equality" is not the same as "running the industry".

Plus I think I should add that at no point did I say I had any preference for anyone else running the building trade.  Fair play to them.  Also we would have never had that Faulty Towers episode with O'Riley without it.

True.  What was i thinking big_smile

75% of the jokes in Robin's Nest too.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Djpekingman wrote:
Mitaman wrote:
Djpekingman wrote:

Where the hell do you get cheap commodity prices and raw materials? Exactly how many raw materials does the UK produce? Everything it uses in what's left of its manufacturing is imported. That means with a weak pound you pay more for them. And food. And that compounds inflation. Which means higher wages. Which means higher prices at the factory gate. Come on get real.

I perhaps did not explain myself very well. UK does not produce, it imports. Manufacturing has benefited from this over the last 5 years as core prices have plumetted. Had commodity prices remained broadly the same as they were, UK manufacturing would now be getting mullered, as things stand, they should be able to cope with a falling Sterling (it will erode current margin, but not put them out of business). Take your pick of these price charts, this one is copper..

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=5y

The low price of commodities is only a temporary blip while the chinese economy picks up again. As soon as it does and they start buying up everything in world again, UK manufacturing will be stuffed with a £ that is going to be around 30% less than is was two weeks ago....

Ordinarily I would agree with you, but we are by no means in ordinary markets, or anything close. Europe and Japan in a negative interest rate death spiral, global interest rates are pulling themselves down due to low growth. No inflation, I honestly cannot see where the growth is going to come from in these times. If no growth, commodity prices are not going to rapidly appreciate any time soon, although I do think they have been oversold at these prices, but not greatly.

Japan has been in the funk for nearly 30 years after their own asset bubble, I can easily see the same happening on a global basis, bear in mind we have been in this now for nearly 9 years (top of the market was Sept/Oct 2007). Easily, this could go on for another 10 years.

So my original point is essentially this, Europe’s companies need British buyers  far more than we need them and so this notion of new trade agreements (following a Brexit) taking 10 years to formulate is highly unlikely. The UK goods deficit is over GBP10 billion with Europe (not to be confused with trade deficit).

Those Italian shoe companies, French wine producers and German car companies sure as shit won’t be waiting 10 years of stunted UK sales to get agrreements in place.

And IF Cameron is right, and these do take 10 years to sort out, then UK manufacturing will be given its biggest ever open goal, but that assumes Sterling is very weak (highly likely) and commodity prices remain low (the big unknown). These two things need to happen for this to be correct.

Only my opinion of course.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Aren't the markets marginally higher than they were at their 2007 peak?

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Cuts wrote:

Aren't the markets marginally higher than they were at their 2007 peak?

Dow Jones currently about 20% higher. FTSE 1000 points below 2007 value, although 6 months ago it was higher. Been a severe drop off in last 6 months or so. Which says to me the UK is very vulnerable. It won't take much to knock it back in a big way. Brexit is one of a number of factors causing the instability.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go?

Some really well reasoned arguments coming from Brexit  and their supporters. Apparently everything issued by the pro Europe or by europeans is scaremongering and propaganda. Well that settles it then.

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