Re Runcorn & Helsby by-election. It's pretty local to me, literally just down the road (6 miles).
Reform have won this by-election as you know. Bernie Sanders said (of the recent Presidential result) "when you leave the working class, don't be surprised if they leave you!" - in the coverage, I've seen a lot of older folk talking about winter fuel allowance and PIP, and the money spent on 'housing migrants'. The term 'Migrants' have been a big deal in this by-election, Reform know which buttons to press.
But when you talk about 'immigration' as an issue, there's basically two groups. The first (the smaller group, but still far too big), who are out and out racists, who just want to 'send them back' etc. and who can't be reasoned with and need to be actively opposed. The second (the much larger) group, are those who will cite immigration as an issue, but then when you delve deeper into it will say it's because of things like poor housing, poor public services, low pay, not being able to get a GP appointment or a suitable school place for their kid etc., and have been conditioned to believe it is because of immigration. If you can address the material conditions if the second group on those issues, they can be peeled away from the racists. If however you offer them nothing and those two groups coalesce together than you are completely and utterly fucked. That is exactly what is happening now.
I think the inevitable outcome at the next election is some form of pact / coalition (whether formal or informal) between Reform and the Tories and a Labour wipeout. I can see people talking about the need to stop Reform electorally, I think that ship has sailed, the groundwork needed to be done years ago and hasn't. I think the task now is to start building a movement over the next 3 or 4 years to mitigate and resist, because there's no chance of stopping them coming to power.
Labour needs to shift left. But they won't. They'll shift even further to the right. We are so far across on the Overton Window, that we are now hitting the brick-work frame.
